ETL 1110-2-540
30 Sep 96
Appendix D
Example Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
<<<<<<<< HMS QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST >>>>>>>>
HENZ METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF)
DATE/TIME: 1100 AM DAY MONTH DD YYYY
.......... SERIOUS URBAN FLOODING POTENTIAL TODAY.........
SYNOPSIS: Monsoonal moisture and the passage of an upper level disturbance will create a serious urban flooding situation today.
The problem will be especially acute in Arapahoe, Douglas, and Denver Counties. Potential life-threatening rainfall of 5-8 in. is
possible in these areas. Prime time for the storms will be from 2:00 pm until 7:00 pm.
Updated forecasts and weather bulletins will be issued within the next 2 hr.
HMS QPF PREDICTION
STORM FORECAST DEPTHS in millimeters (inches)
TYPES
10 min
30 min
60 min
Total
Notes
Light
12.7 (0.50)
20.3 (0.80)
25.4 (1.00)
<50 (<2.00)
Severe weather possible
Moderate
25.4 (1.00)
38.1 (1.50)
63.5 (2.50)
50-13 (2-5)
Heavy
30.5 (1.20)
55.4 (2.20)
102 (4.00)
130-200(5-8)
BASIN SPECIFIC STORM TYPE AND PROBABILITIES (%)
TYPE:
Lt
Mod
Hvy
Major Basins
AMTS:
<50 mm
50-130 m
130-200
Problem Areas
(<2 in.)
(2-5 in.)
5-8 in.
Boulder Creek
40
20
10
Boulder Creek tributaries
Big Dry Creek
60
20
10
Westminster area tributaries
Clear Creek
80
40
20
Lena Gulch, Ralston Creek
Central Denver - West
80
40
60
Urban streams and streets
Central Denver - East
80
60
30
I-25, Harvard Gulch
Bear Creek
60
60
30
Mt. Vernon Creek
South Side - East
80
60
30
Urban streams and streets
South Side - West
90
70
50
Urban streams and streets
Cherry Creek
90
70
50
Goldsmith Gulch
Sand Creek
90
70
30
Westerly Creek, Toll Gate Creek
First Creek - West
60
40
20
Urban streams and streets
First Creek - East
80
40
20
Urban streams and streets
D-1
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